[Designing observational studies by target trial emulation]. / De hypothetische trial.

Ideally, causal research questions will be answered with randomized trials, but this is not always feasible for practical, ethical, or methodological reasons. To obtain a reliable answer to causal questions with observational data, target trial emulation has been introduced, in which an observational study is designed, conducted, and analyzed emulating the target trial. After phrasing a causal question, this framework first addresses seven components of the target trial protocol: eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, assignment procedures, follow-up period, outcome of interest, causal contrast of interest, and statistical analysis plan. Subsequently, these elements are emulated in the observational study. This approach addresses methodological pitfalls before initiating the study, draws more unambiguous conclusions, and provides a structured assessment of limitations of observational studies as well as randomized trials. The use of the target trial framework to support the design of observational studies is increasing.

The STEPWISE study: study protocol for a smartphone-based exercise solution for people with Parkinson's Disease (randomized controlled trial).

BACKGROUND: Exercise has various health benefits for people with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, implementing exercise into daily life and long-term adherence remain challenging. To increase a sustainable engagement with physical activity of people with PD, interventions that are motivating, accessible, and scalable are needed. We primarily aim to investigate whether a smartphone app (STEPWISE app) can increase physical activity (i.e., step count) in people with PD over one year. Our second aim is to investigate the potential effects of the intervention on physical fitness, and motor- and non-motor function. Our third aim is to explore whether there is a dose-response relationship between volume of physical activity and our secondary endpoints. METHODS: STEPWISE is a double-blind, randomized controlled trial. We aim to include 452 Dutch people with PD who can walk independently (Hoehn & Yahr stages 1-3) and who do not take more than 7,000 steps per day prior to inclusion. Physical activity levels are measured as step counts on the participant's own smartphone and scaled as percentage of each participant's baseline. Participants are randomly assigned to an active control group with an increase of 5-20% (active controls) or any of the three intervention arms with increases of 25-100% (intermediate dose), 50-200% (large dose), or 100-400% (very large dose). The primary endpoint is change in step count as measured by the STEPWISE smartphone app from baseline to 52 weeks. For our primary aim, we will evaluate the between-group difference in average daily step count change from baseline to 52 weeks. For our second aim, measures of physical fitness, and motor- and non-motor function are included. For our third aim, we will associate 52-week changes in step count with 52-week changes in secondary outcomes. DISCUSSION: This trial evaluates the potential of a smartphone-based intervention to increase activity levels in people with PD. We envision that motivational apps will increase adherence to physical activity recommendations and could permit conduct of remote clinical trials of exercise for people with PD or those at risk of PD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT04848077; 19/04/2021. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT04848077.

Hybrid Controlled Clinical Trials Using Concurrent Registries in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Feasibility Study.

Hybrid designs with both randomized arms and an external control cohort preserve key features of randomization and utilize external information to augment clinical trials. In this study, we propose to leverage high-quality, patient-level concurrent registries to enhance clinical trials and illustrate the impact on trial design for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. The proposed methodology was evaluated in a randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial. We used patient-level information from a well-defined, population-based registry, that was running parallel to the randomized clinical trial, to identify concurrently nonparticipating, eligible patients who could be matched with trial participants, and integrate them into the statistical analysis. We assessed the impact of the addition of the external controls on the treatment effect estimate, precision, and time to reach a conclusion. During the runtime of the trial, a total of 1,141 registry patients were alive; 473 (41.5%) of them fulfilled the eligibility criteria and 133 (11.7%) were enrolled in the study. A matched control population could be identified among the nonparticipating patients. Augmenting the randomized controls with matched external controls could have avoided unnecessary randomization of 17 patients (-12.8%) as well as reducing the study duration from 30.1 months to 22.6 months (-25.0%). Matching eligible external controls from a different calendar period led to bias in the treatment effect estimate. Hybrid trial designs utilizing a concurrent registry with rigorous matching can minimize bias due to a mismatch in calendar time and differences in standard of care, and may accelerate the development of new treatments.

The Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design in oncology: experience and methodological reflections.

A Trial within Cohorts (TwiCs) study design is a trial design that uses the infrastructure of an observational cohort study to initiate a randomized trial. Upon cohort enrollment, the participants provide consent for being randomized in future studies without being informed. Once a new treatment is available, eligible cohort participants are randomly assigned to the treatment or standard of care. Patients randomized to the treatment arm are offered the new treatment, which they can choose to refuse. Patients who refuse will receive standard of care instead. Patients randomized to the standard of care arm receive no information about the trial and continue receiving standard of care as part of the cohort study. Standard cohort measures are used for outcome comparisons. The TwiCs study design aims to overcome some issues encountered in standard Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). An example of an issue in standard RCTs is the slow patient accrual. A TwiCs study aims to improve this by selecting patients using a cohort and only offering the intervention to patients in the intervention arm. In oncology, the TwiCs study design has gained increasing interest during the last decade. Despite its potential advantages over RCTs, the TwiCs study design has several methodological challenges that need careful consideration when planning a TwiCs study. In this article, we focus on these challenges and reflect on them using experiences from TwiCs studies initiated in oncology. Important methodological challenges that are discussed are the timing of randomization, the issue of non-compliance (refusal) after randomization in the intervention arm, and the definition of the intention-to-treat effect in a TwiCs study and how this effect is related to its counterpart in standard RCTs.

TUBectomy with delayed oophorectomy as an alternative to risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy in high-risk women to assess the safety of prevention: the TUBA-WISP II study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy has gained interest for individuals at high risk for tubo-ovarian cancer as there is compelling evidence that especially high-grade serous carcinoma originates in the fallopian tubes. Two studies have demonstrated a positive effect of salpingectomy on menopause-related quality of life and sexual health compared with standard risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy is non-inferior to the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy for the prevention of tubo-ovarian cancer among individuals at high inherited risk. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesize that postponement of oophorectomy after salpingectomy, to the age of 40-45 (BRCA1) or 45-50 (BRCA2) years, compared with the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy at age 35-40 (BRCA1) or 40-45 (BRCA2) years, is non-inferior in regard to tubo-ovarian cancer risk. TRIAL DESIGN: In this international prospective preference trial, participants will choose between the novel salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy and the current standard salpingo-oophorectomy. Salpingectomy can be performed after the completion of childbearing and between the age of 25 and 40 (BRCA1), 25 and 45 (BRCA2), or 25 and 50 (BRIP1, RAD51C, and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers) years. Subsequent oophorectomy is recommended at a maximum delay of 5 years beyond the upper limit of the current guideline age for salpingo-oophorectomy. The current National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline age, which is also the recommended age for salpingo-oophorectomy within the study, is 35-40 years for BRCA1, 40-45 years for BRCA2, and 45-50 years for BRIP1, RAD51C, and RAD51D pathogenic variant carriers. MAJOR INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Premenopausal individuals with a documented class IV or V germline pathogenic variant in the BRCA1, BRCA2, BRIP1, RAD51C, or RAD51D gene who have completed childbearing are eligible for participation. Participants may have a personal history of a non-ovarian malignancy. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: The primary outcome is the cumulative tubo-ovarian cancer incidence at the target age: 46 years for BRCA1 and 51 years for BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. SAMPLE SIZE: The sample size to ensure sufficient power to test non-inferiority of salpingectomy with delayed oophorectomy compared with salpingo-oophorectomy requires 1500 BRCA1 and 1500 BRCA2 pathogenic variant carriers. ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS: Participant recruitment is expected to be completed at the end of 2026 (total recruitment period of 5 years). The primary outcome is expected to be available in 2036 (minimal follow-up period of 10 years). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04294927.

In silico cancer immunotherapy trials uncover the consequences of therapy-specific response patterns for clinical trial design and outcome.

Late-stage cancer immunotherapy trials often lead to unusual survival curve shapes, like delayed curve separation or a plateauing curve in the treatment arm. It is critical for trial success to anticipate such effects in advance and adjust the design accordingly. Here, we use in silico cancer immunotherapy trials - simulated trials based on three different mathematical models - to assemble virtual patient cohorts undergoing late-stage immunotherapy, chemotherapy, or combination therapies. We find that all three simulation models predict the distinctive survival curve shapes commonly associated with immunotherapies. Considering four aspects of clinical trial design - sample size, endpoint, randomization rate, and interim analyses - we demonstrate how, by simulating various possible scenarios, the robustness of trial design choices can be scrutinized, and possible pitfalls can be identified in advance. We provide readily usable, web-based implementations of our three trial simulation models to facilitate their use by biomedical researchers, doctors, and trialists.

Randomized double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial with pyridostigmine in spinal muscular atrophy types 2-4.

Hereditary proximal spinal muscular atrophy causes weakness and increased fatigability of repetitive motor functions. The neuromuscular junction is anatomically and functionally abnormal in patients with spinal muscular atrophy. Pharmacological improvement of neuromuscular transmission may therefore represent a promising additional treatment strategy. We conducted a Phase II, monocentre, placebo-controlled, double-blind, cross-over trial with the acetylcholinesterase inhibitor pyridostigmine in treatment-naïve patients with spinal muscular atrophy types 2-4. We investigated the safety and efficacy of pyridostigmine on fatigability and motor function. Each participant received pyridostigmine and a placebo for 8 weeks, in random order. Primary outcomes were the repeated nine-hole peg test for fatigability and motor function measure. Secondary outcomes were patient-reported effects, endurance shuttle test combined scores and adverse events. We included 35 patients. For the repeated nine-hole peg test, the mean difference was 0.17 s/trial (95% confidence interval: -1.17-1.49; P = 0.8), favouring placebo, and for the motor function measure, 0.74% (95% confidence interval: 0.00-1.49; P = 0.05), favouring pyridostigmine. Around 74% of patients reported medium-to-large beneficial effects of pyridostigmine on fatigability, compared with 29.7% in the placebo arm. This was paralleled by a reduced dropout risk of 70% on the endurance shuttle test combined scores (hazard ratio: 0.30; 95% confidence interval: 0.15-0.58) under pyridostigmine. Adverse events, mostly mild and self-limiting, occurred more frequently under pyridostigmine. No serious adverse events related to the study medication were observed. Patients with spinal muscular atrophy tolerated pyridostigmine well. There were no significant differences in primary outcomes, but the self-reported reduction of fatigability and improved endurance shuttle test combined score performance suggest that pyridostigmine may be useful as an additional therapy to survival motor neuron-augmenting drugs. Trial registration number: EudraCT: 2011-004369-34, NCT02941328.

Gender differences in the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia: An individual patient data meta-analysis of placebo-controlled studies.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether gender and menopausal status moderate the response to antipsychotic medication in patients with schizophrenia. METHODS: We analyzed data of 22 short-term placebo-controlled registration trials of antipsychotic medications, which included 5,231 patients with schizophrenia. We applied two-step individual patient data meta-regression analyses to establish the influence of gender and menopausal status on treatment response in mean difference in symptom severity and difference in response (>30% symptom reduction). Analyses were performed both with and without correction for baseline (negative) symptom severity. RESULTS: Antipsychotic treatment is associated with larger mean symptom reduction in women than in men with schizophrenia. The number needed to treat (NNT) for a response in women was 6.9, in men 9.4. Although, we found an age by gender effect, the gender by treatment effect was independent of premenopausal status and baseline (negative) symptom severity. CONCLUSION: In the treatment of schizophrenia we found evidence of a higher response to antipsychotic medication in women relative to men. We found no evidence that this effect was driven by menopausal status, or baseline (negative) symptom severity. Despite the impact of gender and age on effect size in acute antipsychotic treatment, efficacy was clinically relevant in all subgroups.

Lithium carbonate in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A: protocol for a confirmatory, randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Given the large genetic heterogeneity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), it seems likely that genetic subgroups may benefit differently from treatment. An exploratory meta-analysis identified that patients homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932, a single nucleotide polymorphism in the gene UNC13A, had a statistically significant survival benefit when treated with lithium carbonate. We aim to confirm the efficacy of lithium carbonate on the time to death or respiratory insufficiency in patients with ALS homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 in UNC13A. METHODS: A randomized, group-sequential, event-driven, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will be conducted in 15 sites across Europe and Australia. Patients will be genotyped for UNC13A; those homozygous for the C-allele at SNP rs12608932 will be eligible. Patients must have a diagnosis of ALS according to the revised El Escorial criteria, and a TRICALS risk-profile score between -6.0 and -2.0. An expected number of 1200 patients will be screened in order to enroll a target sample size of 171 patients. Patients will be randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to lithium carbonate or matching placebo, and treated for a maximum duration of 24 months. The primary endpoint is the time to death or respiratory insufficiency, whichever occurs first. Key secondary endpoints include functional decline, respiratory function, quality of life, tolerability, and safety. An interim analysis for futility and efficacy will be conducted after the occurrence of 41 events. DISCUSSION: Lithium carbonate has been proven to be safe and well-tolerated in patients with ALS. Given the favorable safety profile, the potential benefits are considered to outweigh the burden and risks associated with study participation. This study may provide conclusive evidence about the life-prolonging potential of lithium carbonate in a genetic ALS subgroup. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT number 2020-000579-19 . Registered on 29 March 2021.

Multiple N-of-1 trials to investigate hypoxia therapy in Parkinson's disease: study rationale and protocol.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disease, for which no disease-modifying therapies exist. Preclinical and clinical evidence suggest that hypoxia-based therapy might have short- and long-term benefits in PD. We present the contours of the first study to assess the safety, feasibility and physiological and symptomatic impact of hypoxia-based therapy in individuals with PD. METHODS/DESIGN: In 20 individuals with PD, we will investigate the safety, tolerability and short-term symptomatic efficacy of continuous and intermittent hypoxia using individual, double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled N-of-1 trials. This design allows for dose finding and for including more individualized outcomes, as each individual serves as its own control. A wide range of exploratory outcomes is deployed, including the Movement Disorders Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III, Timed Up & Go Test, Mini Balance Evaluation Systems (MiniBES) test and wrist accelerometry. Also, self-reported impression of overall symptoms, motor and non-motor symptoms and urge to take dopaminergic medication will be assessed on a 10-point Likert scale. As part of a hypothesis-generating part of the study, we also deploy several exploratory outcomes to probe possible underlying mechanisms of action, including cortisol, erythropoietin and platelet-derived growth factor ß. Efficacy will be assessed primarily by a Bayesian analysis. DISCUSSION: This evaluation of hypoxia therapy could provide insight in novel pathways that may be pursued for PD treatment. This trial also serves as a proof of concept for deploying an N-of-1 design and for including individualized outcomes in PD research, as a basis for personalized treatment approaches. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05214287 (registered January 28, 2022).

Estimation of treatment effects in short-term depression studies. An evaluation based on the ICH E9(R1) estimands framework.

Estimands aim to incorporate intercurrent events in design, data collection and estimation of treatment effects in clinical trials. Our aim was to understand what estimands may correspond to efficacy analyses commonly employed in clinical trials conducted before publication of ICH E9(R1). We re-analysed six clinical trials evaluating a new anti-depression treatment. We selected the following analysis methods-ANCOVA on complete cases, following last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation and following multiple imputation; mixed-models for repeated measurements without imputation (MMRM), MMRM following LOCF imputation and following jump-to-reference imputation; and pattern-mixture mixed models. We included a principal stratum analysis based on the predicted subset of the study population who would not discontinue due to adverse events or lack of efficacy. We translated each analysis into the implicitly targeted estimand, and formulated corresponding clinical questions. We could map six estimands to analysis methods. The same analysis method could be mapped to more than one estimand. The major difference between estimands was the strategy for intercurrent events, with other attributes mostly the same across mapped estimands. The quantitative differences in MADRS10 population-level summaries between the estimands were 4-8 points. Not all six estimands had a clinically meaningful interpretation. Only a few analyses would target the same estimand, hence only few could be used as sensitivity analyses. The fact that an analysis could estimate different estimands emphasises the importance of prospectively defining the estimands targeting the primary objective of a trial. The fact that an estimand can be targeted by different analyses emphasises the importance of prespecifying precisely the estimator for the targeted estimand.

Joint modeling of endpoints can be used to answer various research questions in randomized clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: Correlated longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, such as the rate of cognitive decline and the onset of Alzheimer's disease, are frequent (co-)primary and key secondary endpoints in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Despite their biological associations, these types of data are often analyzed separately, leading to loss of information and increases in bias. In this paper, we set out how joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event endpoints can be used in RCTs to answer various research questions. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The key concepts of joint models are introduced and illustrated for a completed trial in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. RESULTS: The output of a joint model can be used to answer different clinically relevant research questions, where the interpretation of effect estimates and those obtained from conventional methods are similar. Albeit joint models have the potential to overcome the limitations of commonly used alternatives, they require additional assumptions regarding the distributions, as well as the associations between two endpoints. CONCLUSION: Improving the uptake of joint models in RCTs may start by outlining the exact research question one seeks to answer, thereby determining how best to prespecify the model and defining the parameter that should be of primary interest.

CeRebrUm and CardIac Protection with ALlopurinol in Neonates with Critical Congenital Heart Disease Requiring Cardiac Surgery with Cardiopulmonary Bypass (CRUCIAL): study protocol of a phase III, randomized, quadruple-blinded, placebo-controlled, Dutch multicenter trial.

BACKGROUND: Neonates with critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) are at risk of brain injury that may result in adverse neurodevelopment. To date, no therapy is available to improve long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes of CCHD neonates. Allopurinol, a xanthine oxidase inhibitor, prevents the formation of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, thereby limiting cell damage during reperfusion and reoxygenation to the brain and heart. Animal and neonatal studies suggest that allopurinol reduces hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and is cardioprotective and safe. This trial aims to test the hypothesis that allopurinol administration in CCHD neonates will result in a 20% reduction in moderate to severe ischemic and hemorrhagic brain injury. METHODS: This is a phase III, randomized, quadruple-blinded, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial. Neonates with a prenatal or postnatal CCHD diagnosis requiring cardiac surgery with CPB in the first 4 weeks after birth are eligible to participate. Allopurinol or mannitol-placebo will be administered intravenously in 2 doses early postnatally in neonates diagnosed antenatally and 3 doses perioperatively of 20 mg/kg each in all neonates. The primary outcome is a composite endpoint of moderate/severe ischemic or hemorrhagic brain injury on early postoperative MRI, being too unstable for postoperative MRI, or mortality within 1 month following CPB. A total of 236 patients (n = 188 with prenatal diagnosis) is required to demonstrate a reduction of the primary outcome incidence by 20% in the prenatal group and by 9% in the postnatal group (power 80%; overall type 1 error controlled at 5%, two-sided), including 1 interim analysis at n = 118 (n = 94 with prenatal diagnosis) with the option to stop early for efficacy. Secondary outcomes include preoperative and postoperative brain injury severity, white matter injury volume (MRI), and cardiac function (echocardiography); postnatal and postoperative seizure activity (aEEG) and regional cerebral oxygen saturation (NIRS); neurodevelopment at 3 months (general movements); motor, cognitive, and language development and quality of life at 24 months; and safety and cost-effectiveness of allopurinol. DISCUSSION: This trial will investigate whether allopurinol administered directly after birth and around cardiac surgery reduces moderate/severe ischemic and hemorrhagic brain injury and improves cardiac function and neurodevelopmental outcome in CCHD neonates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT 2017-004596-31. Registered on November 14, 2017. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04217421. Registered on January 3, 2020.

Estimation and expected sample size in Simon's two-stage designs that stop as early as possible.

In early phase clinical studies in oncology, Simon's two-stage designs are widely used. The trial design could be made more efficient by stopping early in the second stage when the required number of responses is reached, or when it has become clear that this target can no longer be met (a form of non-stochastic curtailment). Early stopping, however, will affect proper estimation of the response rate. We propose a uniformly minimum-variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) for the response rate in this setting. The estimator is proven to be UMVUE using the Rao-Blackwell theorem. We evaluate the estimator's properties in terms of bias and mean squared error, both analytically and via simulations. We derive confidence intervals based on sample space orderings, and assess the coverage. For various design options, we evaluate the reduction in expected sample size as a function of the true response rate. Our method provides a solution for estimating response rates in case of a non-stochastic curtailment Simon's two-stage design.

Clinical trials in pediatric ALS: a TRICALS feasibility study.

Background: Pediatric investigation plans (PIPs) describe how adult drugs can be studied in children. In 2015, PIPs for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) became mandatory for European marketing-authorization of adult treatments, unless a waiver is granted by the European Medicines Agency (EMA).Objective: To assess the feasibility of clinical studies on the effect of therapy in children (<18 years) with ALS in Europe.Methods: The EMA database was searched for submitted PIPs in ALS. A questionnaire was sent to 58 European ALS centers to collect the prevalence of pediatric ALS during the past ten years, the recruitment potential for future pediatric trials, and opinions of ALS experts concerning a waiver for ALS.Results: Four PIPs were identified; two were waived and two are planned for the future. In total, 49 (84.5%) centers responded to the questionnaire. The diagnosis of 44,858 patients with ALS was reported by 46 sites; 39 of the patients had an onset < 18 years (prevalence of 0.008 cases per 100,000 or 0.087% of all diagnosed patients). The estimated recruitment potential (47 sites) was 26 pediatric patients within five years. A majority of ALS experts (75.5%) recommend a waiver should apply for ALS due to the low prevalence of pediatric ALS.Conclusions: ALS with an onset before 18 years is extremely rare and may be a distinct entity from adult ALS. Conducting studies on the effect of disease-modifying therapy in pediatric ALS may involve lengthy recruitment periods, high costs, ethical/legal implications, challenges in trial design and limited information.

Functional Loss and Mortality in Randomized Clinical Trials for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: To Combine, or Not to Combine-That is the Estimand.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a rapidly progressive disease leading to death in, on average, 3-5 years after first symptom onset. Consequently, there are frequently a non-negligible number of patients who die during the course of a clinical trial. This introduces bias in end points such as daily functioning, muscle strength, and quality of life. In this paper, we outline how the choice of strategy to handle death affects the interpretation of the trial results. We provide a general overview of the considerations, positioned in the estimand framework, and discuss the possibility that not every strategy provides a clinically relevant answer in each setting. The relevance of a strategy changes as a function of the intended trial duration, hypothesized treatment effect, and population included. It is important to consider this trade-off at the design stage of a clinical trial, as this will clarify the exact research question that is being answered, and better guide the planning, design, and analysis of the study.

A Road Map for Remote Digital Health Technology for Motor Neuron Disease.

Despite recent and potent technological advances, the real-world implementation of remote digital health technology in the care and monitoring of patients with motor neuron disease has not yet been realized. Digital health technology may increase the accessibility to and personalization of care, whereas remote biosensors could optimize the collection of vital clinical parameters, irrespective of patients' ability to visit the clinic. To facilitate the wide-scale adoption of digital health care technology and to align current initiatives, we outline a road map that will identify clinically relevant digital parameters; mediate the development of benefit-to-burden criteria for innovative technology; and direct the validation, harmonization, and adoption of digital health care technology in real-world settings. We define two key end products of the road map: (1) a set of reliable digital parameters to capture data collected under free-living conditions that reflect patient-centric measures and facilitate clinical decision making and (2) an integrated, open-source system that provides personalized feedback to patients, health care providers, clinical researchers, and caregivers and is linked to a flexible and adaptable platform that integrates patient data in real time. Given the ever-changing care needs of patients and the relentless progression rate of motor neuron disease, the adoption of digital health care technology will significantly benefit the delivery of care and accelerate the development of effective treatments.

Innovating Clinical Trials for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Challenging the Established Order.

Development of effective treatments for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been hampered by disease heterogeneity, a limited understanding of underlying pathophysiology, and methodologic design challenges. We have evaluated 2 major themes in the design of pivotal, phase 3 clinical trials for ALS-(1) patient selection and (2) analytical strategy-and discussed potential solutions with the European Medicines Agency. Several design considerations were assessed using data from 5 placebo-controlled clinical trials (n = 988), 4 population-based cohorts (n = 5,100), and 2,436 placebo-allocated patients from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database. The validity of each proposed design modification was confirmed by means of simulation and illustrated for a hypothetical setting. Compared to classical trial design, the proposed design modifications reduce the sample size by 30.5% and placebo exposure time by 35.4%. By making use of prognostic survival models, one creates a potential to include a larger proportion of the population and maximize generalizability. We propose a flexible design framework that naturally adapts the trial duration when inaccurate assumptions are made at the design stage, such as enrollment or survival rate. In case of futility, the follow-up time is shortened and patient exposure to ineffective treatments or placebo is minimized. For diseases such as ALS, optimizing the use of resources, widening eligibility criteria, and minimizing exposure to futile treatments and placebo is critical to the development of effective treatments. Our proposed design modifications could circumvent important pitfalls and may serve as a blueprint for future clinical trials in this population.

In-silico trial of intracranial flow diverters replicates and expands insights from conventional clinical trials.

The cost of clinical trials is ever-increasing. In-silico trials rely on virtual populations and interventions simulated using patient-specific models and may offer a solution to lower these costs. We present the flow diverter performance assessment (FD-PASS) in-silico trial, which models the treatment of intracranial aneurysms in 164 virtual patients with 82 distinct anatomies with a flow-diverting stent, using computational fluid dynamics to quantify post-treatment flow reduction. The predicted FD-PASS flow-diversion success rates replicate the values previously reported in three clinical trials. The in-silico approach allows broader investigation of factors associated with insufficient flow reduction than feasible in a conventional trial. Our findings demonstrate that in-silico trials of endovascular medical devices can: (i) replicate findings of conventional clinical trials, and (ii) perform virtual experiments and sub-group analyses that are difficult or impossible in conventional trials to discover new insights on treatment failure, e.g. in the presence of side-branches or hypertension.